"China's exports have maintained fast growth for four successive years and it's difficult to keep up such high growth due to the limitations of global markets and also trade protectionism," the Commerce Ministry's think-tank said in a report seen on Monday.
China's exports and imports are expected to total $1.6 trillion in 2006, rising 15 percent from this year, the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Co-operation said in its report, posted on the ministry's Web site (www.mofcom.gov.cn).
It did not give a breakdown in the latest forecast. Foreign complaints and curbs on trade affected $8.9 billion of exports in the first nine months of this year, it said.
"China is the biggest victim of trade protectionism ..., and such a trend won't show a fundamental change next year," it said. The official Xinhua news agency said trade strains were behind a 10 percent drop, to $2.46 billion, in the value of textile deals struck during the annual two-week Canton fair that ended at the weekend.
Orders for textile exports to the United States dropped 44 percent from last year to $310 million. Xinhua quoted the fair's spokesman, Xu Bing, as saying many manufacturers and purchasers were cautious about signing deals because China was still locked in talks with the United States over a formula to regulate China's surging textile exports.
The think-tank forecast China's exports would rise an annual 26 percent this year to $745 billion while imports would rise 18 percent to $655 billion, producing a trade surplus of about $90 billion.
China recorded a trade surplus of $68.33 billion in the first nine months of 2005, far surpassing the $32 billion logged in all of 2004. Exports have continued to surge despite a landmark 2.1 percent revaluation of the yuan on July 21 to 8.11 per dollar.